MADRID — Voters in Spain go to the polls Sunday in an election that could make the country the latest European Union member to swing to the populist right, a shift that would represent a major upheaval after five years under a left-wing government.

Here’s what you need to know about the vote.

What is at stake?

Opinion polls indicate the political right has the edge going into the election, and that raises the possibility a neo-fascist party will be part of Spain’s next government. The extreme right has not been in power in Spain since the transition to democracy following the death of former dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

With no party expected to win an absolute majority, the choice for voters is basically between another leftist governing coalition or one between the right and the far right.

The right-of-center Popular Party, the front-runner in the polls, and the extreme right Vox party are on one side. They portray the vote as a chance to end “Sanchismo” — a term the PP uses to sum up what it contends are the dictatorial ways of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the left’s radical ideology and numerous lies by the government.

In the other corner are the Socialists and a new movement called Sumar that brings together 15 small leftist parties for the first time. They warn that putting the right in power will threaten Spain’s post-Franco changes.

Why were early elections called?

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the early election a day after his Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party and its small far-left coalition partner, Unidas Podemos (United We Can), took a hammering in local and regional elections May 28.

Prior to that, Sánchez had insisted he would ride out his four-year term, indicating that an election would be held in December. But after the May defeat, he said it was only fair for Spaniards to decide the country’s political future without delay.

What happened since May 28?

The Popular Party emerged from the local and regional elections as the most-voted party by far, giving it the right to take office in all but a handful of towns and one or two regions.

Since then, the PP and Vox have agreed to govern together in some 140 cities and towns as well as to add two more regions to the one where they already co-governed.

The Socialists and other leftist parties lost political clout across the country, but after weathering the initial shock, they have regrouped and recovered some ground, leaving the vote outcome Sunday still an unknown.

What does it mean for Europe?

A PP-Vox government would mean another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Spain’s two main leftist parties are pro-EU participation. On the right, the PP is also in favor of the EU, but Vox is not.

The election comes as Spain holds the EU’s rotating presidency. Sánchez had hoped to use the six-month term to showcase the advances his government had made. An election defeat for Sánchez could see the PP taking over the EU presidency reins.

What are the campaign themes?

The campaign has been dominated by mudslinging from all sides, with both the left and right accusing each other of lying about their policies and past records.

The PP has managed to put Sánchez’s honorability in question by highlighting the many U-turns he has made and his alliances with small regional secessionist parties, something that alienates even some left-wing voters.

The left has sought to convince voters that there is little difference between the two right-wing parties and that a victory for them would set Spain back decades in terms of social progress.

Nearly every poll has put the PP firmly ahead of the Socialists and Vox ahead of Sumar for third place. But 30% of the electorate is said to be undecided.

With the election taking place at the height of summer, millions of citizens are likely to be vacationing away from their regular polling places. But postal voting requests have soared, and officials are estimating a 70% election turnout.

Is there any chance for a surprise?

A surprise factor that could upset poll predictions is Sumar: the brand new, broad-based movement of 15 small left-wing parties, including Podemos and prominent social figures.

Sumar is headed by highly popular Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz, who is also the second deputy vice president and the only woman among the leaders of the four main parties.

This is the first time small left parties have ever come together on a joint ticket in Spain. Their earlier fragmentation was blamed for many of the town and regional losses in the May election, and they hope that joined together they can make a bigger showing.

Sumar’s big goal is to beat out Vox for the potential king-making third place finish. That would allow Sumar to give valuable support for another leftist coalition government. Surveys consistently suggested during the campaign that an absolute majority for Popular Party and Vox is very possible.
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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned Friday of the risk of a new war with Azerbaijan, accusing Baku of genocide in the breakaway Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Baku and Yerevan have fought two wars over the mountainous enclave and a peace treaty remains a distant prospect. 

Talks under the mediation of the European Union, United States, and separately Russia have brought about little progress. 

“So long as a peace treaty has not been signed and such a treaty has not been ratified by the parliaments of the two countries, of course, a [new] war [with Azerbaijan] is very likely,” Pashinyan told AFP.  

Tensions escalated earlier in July when Azerbaijan temporarily shut the Lachin corridor, the sole road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.  

The closure sparked concerns about a humanitarian crisis in the region, which experiences shortages of food, medicines and power supplies. 

Last week, AFP spoke to locals in the enclave’s main city, Stepanakert, who reported food shortages and critical problems with access to medical services.  

The growing diplomatic engagement of the European Union and United States in the Caucasus has irked traditional regional power broker Russia. 

Armenia has relied on Russia for military and economic support since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Yerevan has accused Moscow, bogged down in its war on Ukraine, of failing to fulfill its peacekeeping role in Karabakh under a 2020 Moscow-brokered cease-fire. 

Call for pressure on Baku

As the latest round of peace talks on July 15 in Brussels failed to bring about a breakthrough, Pashinyan said that both the West and Russia needed to increase pressure on Baku to lift its blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Deadly border clashes continued between the ex-Soviet republics after a Russian-brokered cease-fire ended six weeks of fighting in autumn 2020, and Azerbaijan has since captured pockets of land inside Armenia. 

Pashinyan said “Armenia’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh” are Yerevan’s red lines at talks with Baku. 

Nagorno-Karabakh has been at the center of a decadeslong conflict between the two countries, which have fought two wars for control of the region — in the 1990s and in 2020 — that have claimed thousands of lives on both sides. 

The Russian-mediated cease-fire agreement saw Armenia cede swaths of territories it had controlled for some three decades. 

Moscow deployed peacekeepers to the Lachin corridor to ensure free passage between Armenia and Karabakh. 

“Armenia’s case is difficult because Armenia’s interest in this process is perceived and interpreted by Azerbaijan as a so-called encroachment upon Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,” Pashinyan said. 

During Western-mediated talks in May, Yerevan agreed to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan but demanded international mechanisms for protecting the rights and security of the region’s ethnic-Armenian population. 

Baku insists such guarantees must be provided at the national level, rejecting any international format. 
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BAGHDAD – Demonstrators marched in the Iraqi and Iranian capitals Friday to denounce Sweden’s permission for protests that desecrate the Quran, as Stockholm withdrew staff from its Baghdad embassy.

Hundreds of people gathered in Baghdad’s Sadr City after Friday prayers, chanting “Yes, yes to Islam, yes, yes to the Quran,” an AFP correspondent said.

In Tehran, protesters waving Iranian flags and carrying copies of Islam’s holy book chanted “Down with the United States, Britain, Israel and Sweden” as some burned the Swedish flag.

Iran said late Friday it will not allow a new Swedish ambassador into the country.

The rallies came amid heightened tensions between Stockholm and Baghdad over a Sweden-based Iraqi refugee who last month burnt pages of the Quran outside Stockholm’s main mosque.

In the latest such incident Thursday, the refugee, Salwan Momika, stepped on the Quran but did not burn it. His act triggered renewed condemnation across the Muslim world.

Sweden on Friday cited security concerns in a decision to relocate embassy staff after protesters stormed its embassy compound in a predawn attack this week.

Iraq condemned the embassy attack but retaliated against the Stockholm protest by expelling its ambassador, vowing to sever ties and saying it was suspending the operating license of Swedish telecom giant Ericsson.

But an adviser to the premier told foreign journalists Friday that contractual agreements would be respected, and “no company has been suspended, not even Ericsson.”

‘Disgraceful acts’

In Baghdad’s Sadr City, crowds gathered at the order of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, whose followers were behind the embassy raid late Wednesday.

“Through this demonstration, we want to send a message to the United Nations,” said Amer Shemal, a municipal official, urging member states to “penalize any desecration of holy books — those of Islam, of Christianity, of Judaism.”

Regional powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Iran said separately late Thursday they had summoned Swedish diplomats to protest Stockholm allowing Momika’s actions on free speech grounds.

Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s holiest sites, said it would urge Sweden “to take all immediate and necessary measures to stop these disgraceful acts,” a foreign ministry statement said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian spoke to his Swedish counterpart, Tobias Billstrom, by phone Friday.

“The person who committed this unforgivable insult must be arrested, tried, and held accountable for his actions,” a foreign ministry statement quoted him as saying.

A later statement said the Swedish ambassador’s mandate in Tehran had ended, and “until the Swedish government takes a serious action over the desecration of [the] Holy Quran, we will not accept the new Swedish ambassador and the Iranian ambassador will not be sent to Sweden.”

‘Keep burning’

Sweden’s decision to authorize the protest has drawn widespread condemnation from Arab and Muslim countries, including Oman and Kuwait, as well as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, which both summoned Sweden’s charges d’affaires.

The British foreign office also condemned the Quran protest, calling it “deeply insulting to Muslims around the world and completely inappropriate.”

Kuwait said it was coordinating with Arab states to hold an emergency meeting of the 57-member Jeddah-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation to take “concrete and practical” measures so such an insult to the Quran would not be repeated, according to the state news agency.

In an interview published Friday, Momika — who describes himself as an atheist — defended his actions and said they were meant to highlight discrimination against minority groups in Iraq.

“My book-burning was carried out within the bounds of Swedish law,” he told French magazine Marianne. “I will keep burning Qurans as long as I am legally allowed to.”

Billstrom called Momika’s protest “a clear provocation” that “in no way reflects the Swedish government’s opinions,” while also stressing a “constitutional right to freedom of assembly, freedom of expression and freedom to demonstrate.”
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Prominent Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who had publicly accused President Vladimir Putin and the army top brass of not pursuing the war in Ukraine harshly or effectively enough, was remanded in custody on Friday on charges of inciting extremism. 

His arrest earlier in the day by his ex-employer, the FSB state security service, suggests authorities have wearied of his criticism of what they call Russia’s “special military operation,” and perhaps of other loud nationalist voices who had appeared to have exceptional license to deride the war effort. 

It follows an abortive mutiny last month led by another outspoken critic, Yevgeny Prigozhin, boss of the Wagner mercenary force, who is still free but has sharply curtailed his own verbal attacks. 

The charge brought by FSB prosecutors carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison, state news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti reported. The RBC news site said the Meshchansky district court in Moscow had remanded Girkin, 52, into investigative custody until September 18. 

Girkin, a former FSB officer and battlefield commander also known as Igor Strelkov, helped Russia to annex Crimea in 2014 and, soon after, to organize pro-Russian militias who wrested part of eastern Ukraine out of Kyiv’s control — events that started Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

He was also given a life sentence in absentia by a Dutch court in 2022 for his alleged role in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, with the loss of 298 passengers and crew. 

In footage from court posted on a popular Telegram channel, Girkin stood almost motionless in a glass cage, with his arms folded, staring straight ahead. 

He had been regarded by many as untouchable because of his history and ties to the authorities but had become more outspoken in recent months.  

Girkin announced in May that he and others had set up the “Club of Angry Patriots” to save Russia from what he said was the danger of systemic turmoil because of military failures in Ukraine and jostling in the elite to eventually succeed Putin. 

Asked at the time if he was naive to launch a political movement without the assent of the Kremlin, he said: “I hope you would not call me a naive person.” 

In one of his most outspoken tirades, in a post on July 18 on his official Telegram channel, followed by more than 760,000 people, Girkin peppered Putin with personal insults and urged him to pass power “to someone truly capable and responsible.” 

RBC, citing two unnamed law enforcement sources, said Girkin’s Moscow home had been searched. 

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm, said the men who run Russia’s law enforcement and power ministries had long wanted to arrest Girkin. 

“Strelkov (Girkin) had overstepped all conceivable boundaries a long time ago,” she said. “This is a direct outcome of Prigozhin’s mutiny: the army’s command now wields greater political leverage to quash its opponents in the public sphere.” 

Stanovaya said Girkin’s detention was a signal that any of the bitterest critics of Moscow’s approach to the war could face prosecution. 
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The U.N. humanitarian chief warned Friday that millions of people are at risk of hunger and death as a consequence of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal.

“Some will go hungry, some will starve. Many may die as a result of these decisions,” Martin Griffiths told a meeting of the U.N. Security Council convened to discuss the humanitarian impacts of Russia’s announcement Monday that it is leaving the nearly year-old grain deal.

The initiative, negotiated by the United Nations and Turkey last July, and signed onto by Russia and Ukraine, has seen world food prices decrease 23% and stabilize after reaching highs following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The United Nations says 64% of almost 33 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain exported under the deal went to low- and middle-income countries, helping keep food affordable and available in the midst of a global cost-of-living crisis and rising fuel prices.

Since the deal ground to a halt on Monday, the World Food Program reports wheat futures have risen by almost 9% and corn futures by 8%. Wednesday saw the largest single-day increase in wheat prices since February 2022.

“And this is not surprising,” Griffiths said. “This was predicted, and it happened.”

He warned that with shrinking options for selling their grain, Ukrainian farmers may have no choice but to stop farming. The country was an international breadbasket before the conflict, supplying 400 million metric tons of grain and foodstuffs to world markets annually.

Ports targeted

This week, Russia’s military has also resumed targeting Ukraine’s ports. For four consecutive days, it has hit Odesa, Chornomorsk and Mykolaiv ports with missiles and drones, destroying critical infrastructure, facilities and 60,000 metric tons of grain. WFP says that is enough grain to feed 270,000 people for a year.

“We strongly condemn these attacks and urge Russia to stop them immediately,” U.N. political chief Rosemary DiCarlo told the council.

Russia has also announced it will consider any ships in the Black Sea as carrying military cargo and, therefore, legitimate targets. This stance was reiterated by its envoy.

“The flagged states will be deemed to be complicit in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime,” Dmitry Polyanskiy said of the countries where the ships are registered.

The U.N. political chief said such threats are “unacceptable.”

The Russian representative claimed that Ukraine has used the grain deal as cover to beef up its military-industrial storage capacities at the Black Sea ports.

“With the end of the deal, we have an opportunity to address this situation, and to consider the fact that Ukrainian infrastructure is located there as a place of deployment for replenishment for Ukrainian forces with Western weapons,” Polyanskiy said.

As part of the grain deal, ships entering and exiting the Black Sea corridor underwent inspections by a joint team of Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and U.N. inspectors near Istanbul in order to ensure no military cargo was aboard the vessels.

Russia’s rationale for departing the deal is that it has not benefited enough under it, an explanation that some countries saw as cynical.

“By blocking exports from Ukrainian ports and prompting an increase in agricultural and food prices, Russia is increasing the profits from its own exports,” said France’s ambassador, Nicolas De Riviere. “It is increasing its revenues to finance its war of aggression against Ukraine. This is the reality. Russia is seeking to play the victim and claim to have been swindled with the Istanbul agreements.”

Record Russian exports

The European Union envoy said public data shows Russian grain exports have reached record volumes.

“From 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2023, Russia’s wheat exports reached 44.7 million tons, more than 10% higher than the average for previous years,” Ambassador Olof Skoog said. “Its fertilizer exports are nearing full recovery.”

The U.S.-based International Food Policy Research Institute said in a paper released Thursday that global production of wheat and feed grains, including corn, should be sufficient to meet global demand this year, even without Ukrainian products.

But with Black Sea routes closed to its exports, Ukraine will have to find alternatives, which will be expensive. And without lower-cost options, Ukrainian wheat and corn production would likely drop next year. Add to that the damage to its export infrastructure, and IFPRI experts say that would significantly affect short-term global grain availability and further disrupt Ukraine’s longer-term ability to grow and export grain.
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Latest developments:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain. The ambassador had publicly criticized Zelenskyy’s response to remarks from outgoing British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace that Ukraine should show more gratitude for weapons from its allies. However, the president’s office has not stated the reason for Vadym Prystaiko’s dismissal.
Belarus says its military is training with fighters from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group at a site near the Belarus-Poland border.
European Union foreign ministers met Thursday to discuss a proposed four-year, $22.4 billion military aid plan for Ukraine.

 

The last of the Wagner Group’s convict-prisoner mercenaries are due to be released from their mandated service “in the coming days,” the British Defense Ministry said Friday.

In the ministry’s daily intelligence report about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it said “a significant number” of the pardoned convicts will “likely” continue with Wagner as professional contractors. Russia now controls Wagner’s prison recruitment pipeline, according to the ministry.

The Wagner Group grew to become the organization that staged a mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority last month.

The end of the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment program marks one of the bloodiest episodes in modern military history, the British ministry said, with as many as 20,000 convict-recruits killed in a few months.

CIA Director William Burns said Thursday at the Aspen Security Forum, a U.S. national security and foreign policy conference, that the mutiny was a “very complicated dance,” and Putin is likely biding his time until he can decide how to extract revenge from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner Group. “In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution,” Burns said.

Late Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his daily address that Russia has used almost 70 missiles “of various types” against Ukraine since Monday “and to a significant extent – against Odesa and Odesa region, Mykolaiv, our other southern cities and communities.”

Unfortunately, he said, “our defenders of the sky” were unable “to protect the entire Ukrainian sky,” but Ukraine is working to obtain other air defense systems.

Russia attacked Ukraine’s southern cities with drones and missiles for a third consecutive night Thursday, particularly targeting Odesa, the country’s key Black Sea port.

Two people were killed in Odesa and at least 19 injured in Mykolaiv, a city close to the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said.

In recent days, Russia has focused its attacks on Ukraine’s critical grain export infrastructure after Moscow ended its support for safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports past Russian war ships on the Black Sea.

Moscow has also vowed “retribution” this week for Ukraine’s attack on a crucial bridge linking Russia to Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the recent Russian attacks.

“These attacks are also having an impact well beyond Ukraine. We are already seeing the negative effect on global wheat and corn prices which hurts everyone, but especially vulnerable people in the global south,” his spokesman said in a statement.

The Russian military described its hits on Odesa as “retaliatory.”

Regional Ukrainian governor Vitaliy Kim said on Telegram that one airstrike hit the center of Mykolaiv, and that the wounded there included five children. Kim added that two people were rescued from the rubble.

Oleksandr Snkevych, Mykolaiv’s mayor, said the strike damaged at least five high-rise buildings as well as several garages.

Russia has targeted Odesa and Mykolaiv with aerial attacks multiple times this week.

“Russian terrorists continue their attempts to destroy the life of our country,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

Meanwhile, Russia-installed officials in Crimea said a Ukrainian drone attack killed one person and damaged multiple administrative buildings in the northwestern part of the peninsula.

 

More US Sanctions

The U.S. Treasury Department said Thursday it has imposed new Russia-related sanctions, targeting 18 individuals and dozens of organizations to block Moscow’s access to products that support its war against Ukraine.

In a statement, Treasury said the measures are designed to “reduce Russia’s revenue from the metals and mining sector, undermine its future energy capabilities and degrade Russia’s access to the international financial system.”

VOA national security correspondent Jeff Seldin, VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb and VOA’s Anna Chernikova in Kyiv contributed to this story. Some information came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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BAGHDAD — Muslim-majority nations expressed outrage Friday at the desecration of a copy of the Quran in Sweden. Some prepared for street demonstrations following midday prayers to show their anger.

In Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, protesters planned demonstrations after Swedish police permitted a protest Thursday in which an Iraqi Christian living in Stockholm kicked and stood on a Quran, Islam’s holy book, outside of the Iraqi Embassy. Hours before that, demonstrators in Baghdad broke into the Swedish Embassy and lit a fire to show their anger at his threats to burn the book.

Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani has ordered the expulsion of the Swedish ambassador from Iraq and the withdrawal of the Iraqi charge d’affaires from Sweden. But that may not be enough to calm those angered, and another protest in Baghdad is planned for Friday afternoon.

In neighboring Iran, demonstrators also planned to take to the streets. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has written a letter to the United Nations secretary-general over the Quran desecration and has summoned the Swedish ambassador.

“We consider the Swedish government responsible for the outcome of provocation reactions from the world’s Muslims,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said.

The man in Stockholm also wiped his feet with a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his demonstration and did similar to a photo of Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a powerful leader there.

Lebanon’s Shiite militant group Hezbollah also called for a demonstration Friday afternoon. Khamenei and Iran’s theocracy serve as Hezbollah’s main sponsor.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a video address Thursday night called on Muslims to demand their governments expel Sweden’s ambassadors.

“I invite brothers and sisters in all neighborhoods and villages to attend all mosques, carrying their Qurans and sit in them, calling on the state to take a stance toward Sweden,” Nasrallah said in the address, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.

On Friday “the whole world must see how we embrace our Quran, and the whole world must see how we protect our Quran with our blood.”

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two Sunni-ruled Gulf Arab nations, summoned Swedish diplomats to condemn the desecration. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry also criticized it.

In Pakistan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif strongly condemned the events in Sweden. He called on the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation to play a “historic role in expressing the sentiments of Muslims and stopping this demonization.” Meanwhile, Islamists in his country have been pushing Sharif, who faces an upcoming election, to cut diplomatic ties with Sweden.

On Thursday morning, protesters in Baghdad occupied the Swedish Embassy for several hours and set a small fire. The embassy staff had been evacuated a day earlier. After protesters left the embassy, diplomats closed it to visitors without specifying when it would reopen.

Prime Minister Sudani said in a statement that Iraqi authorities would prosecute those responsible for starting the fire and referred to an investigation of “negligent security officials.” Some demonstrators stayed at the site, ignored by police, after the attack. An Associated Press photographer and two Reuters staff members were arrested while covering the protest and released several hours later without charges.

This is the second Quran desecration to involve the Iraqi Christian in Sweden, identified as Salwan Momika. Last month, a man identified by local media and on his social media as Momika burned a Quran outside a Stockholm mosque during the major Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, triggering widespread condemnation in the Islamic world.

The right to hold public demonstrations is protected by the constitution in Sweden. Blasphemy laws were abandoned in the 1970s. Police generally give permission based on whether they believe a public gathering can be held without major disruptions or safety risks.

For Muslims, the burning of the Quran represents a desecration of their religion’s holy text. Quran burnings in the past have sparked protests across the Muslim world, some turning violent. In Afghanistan, the Taliban suspended all the activities of Swedish organizations in the country in response to the recent Quran burning.

A similar protest by a far-right activist was held outside Turkey’s embassy earlier this year, complicating Sweden’s efforts to persuade Turkey to let it join NATO.

In June, protesters who support al-Sadr stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad over that Quran burning.
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DADAAB, KENYA — Abdikadir Omar was trapped in an extremist-controlled town in Somalia for years until May, when he slipped out to make a 12-day journey with his wife and seven children to neighboring Kenya in search of food and safety.

To his surprise, “I found peace but no food,” the 30-year-old told The Associated Press. He stood near the withered maize he tried to plant around his family’s makeshift shelter of branches and plastic sheeting outside one of the world’s largest refugee camps.

As global food insecurity suffers another shock with Russia’s termination of a deal to keep grain flowing from Ukraine, the hundreds of thousands of Somalis who have fled climate change and insecurity offer a stark example of what happens when aid runs low.

Omar, a farmer, was forced to give most of his produce as tax to al-Shabab, the al-Qaida-linked extremists who have controlled parts of Somalia for years, and the little that remained wasn’t enough to feed his family during Somalia’s worst drought in decades. The final blow came when al-Shabab, under pressure from a Somali military offensive, killed his younger brother.

Omar and his family joined a new wave of Somalis on the run. They were among 135,000 new refugees who arrived at Dadaab in recent months and eventually were allowed to access food aid when the Kenyan government resumed refugee registrations in February at the camp located 90 kilometers from the Somali border.

Dadaab is home to more than 360,000 registered refugees and many unregistered ones. The camp was established in the 1990s, its permanence reflected in the neat rows of corrugated iron homes in its older sections.

Food rations, however, are more fragile. They have been cut from 80% of the minimum daily nutritional requirement to 60% due to reduced donor funding, according to the World Food Program. Traditional donors have been quick to bring up hunger in places like Somalia when criticizing Russia for ending the grain deal, however they have focused their giving elsewhere, including Ukraine. In May, a high-level donors’ conference for Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia raised less than $3 billion of the $7 billion that organizers wanted for humanitarian aid.

Refugee camps like Dadaab, especially in Africa, will see further cuts in aid because of Russia’s action, the WFP’s executive director, Cindy McCain, told the AP on Tuesday. Under the recently ended deal, WFP was procuring 80% of its global wheat supply from Ukraine.”There are going to be some serious shortages and, in some cases, none at all as a result of this,” she said, adding that it was too soon to predict what those cuts would be.

Already, “families that used to prepare probably three meals a day have now reduced to prepare either two meals or a meal a day, and that’s quite extreme,” the WFP head of programs at Dadaab, Colin Buleti, told the AP at a food distribution center during a visit last week.

Families receive monthly rations of sorghum, rice, beans, maize and vegetable oil, alongside a cash transfer for buying fresh produce that has been halved to $3.

Aid workers say the reduced rations are likely to worsen malnutrition. In one of Dadaab’s three sections, Hagadera, 384 malnutrition cases were reported in the first half of the year, already exceeding the 347 reported there all of last year, according to the International Rescue Committee, which provides health services.

The malnutrition ward in Hagadera is filled beyond capacity with crying babies. It is meant to handle 30 patients and is currently at 56.

Dool Abdirahman, 25, arrived with her malnourished baby daughter in November. The family fled Somalia when the infant developed hydrocephalus, or a buildup of fluid on the brain. Until then, the family had struggled to hold out at home, Abdirahman said.

The International Rescue Committee’s health manager in Dadaab, Barbara Muttimos, said that even the nutrient-dense peanut paste used to treat children who are acutely and severely malnourished is threatened by reduced funding and the growing number of hungry people.

But for mothers like Mabina Ali Hassan, 38, the conditions in Dadaab are better than the nonexistent services back home, where conflict has destabilized the country over the past three decades.

“I regret going back to Somalia in 2016 when I heard it was safer,” the mother of eight said. “This baby was born there and couldn’t get health care because the hospitals were not equipped.” She said she returned to the refugee camp when her son, now a year old, became malnourished.

Maryan Mohamed, 30, said she was lucky to be among the newly registered refugees. The former teashop owner and her six children arrived at Dadaab in March and for four months lived off food handouts from friends who were already registered.

“While stability welcomed me here, I’m still striving for the life I dreamed of,” she said.

The threat of insecurity remains, even for the refugees. Al-Shabab this month attacked a Somali military base just 12 kilometers from the Kenya border. Somali forces are under pressure to assume security responsibilities as an African Union peacekeeping force continues its withdrawal from the country.

Kenya’s government is now in discussions with the United Nations on how to integrate the hundreds of thousands of refugees into host communities in the future. The U.N. refugee agency says such integration is the best way to host refugees as donor funding shrinks.
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STOCKHOLM — A recent string of public desecrations of the Quran by a handful of anti-Islam activists in Sweden has sparked an angry reaction in Muslim countries and raised questions – including in Sweden – about why such acts are allowed.

In the latest such incident, an Iraqi living in Sweden on Thursday stomped on and kicked Islam’s holy book in a two-man rally outside the Iraqi Embassy in Stockholm. The protest was authorized by Swedish police, who kept a handful of agitated counterdemonstrators at a safe distance.

The same Iraqi man burned a Quran outside a Stockholm mosque last month in a similar protest that was approved by police. And at the start of the year, a far-right activist from Denmark carried out a similar stunt outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm.

Here’s a look at how Swedish authorities have been dealing with these acts.

Is desecrating the Quran allowed in Sweden?

There is no law in Sweden specifically prohibiting the burning or desecration of the Quran or other religious texts. Like many Western countries, Sweden doesn’t have any blasphemy laws.

It wasn’t always that way. As late as the 19th century, blasphemy was considered a serious crime in Sweden, punishable by death. But blasphemy laws were gradually relaxed as Sweden became increasingly secularized. The last such law was taken off the books in 1970.

Can Swedish authorities stop such acts?

Many Muslim countries have called on the Swedish government to stop protesters from burning the Quran. But in Sweden it is up to police, not the government, to decide whether to authorize demonstrations or public gatherings.

The freedom of speech is protected under the Swedish constitution. Police need to cite specific grounds to deny a permit for a demonstration or public gathering, such as risks to public safety.

Stockholm police did just that in February when they denied two applications for Quran-burning protests, citing assessments from the Swedish Security Service that such acts could increase the risk of terror attacks against Sweden. But a court later overturned those decisions, saying police need to cite more concrete threats to ban a public gathering.

Can Quran-burning be considered hate speech?

Sweden’s hate speech law prohibits incitement against groups of people based on race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity.

Some say burning the Quran constitutes incitement against Muslims and should therefore be considered as hate speech. Others say such acts are targeting the religion of Islam rather than practitioners of the faith, and that criticism of religion must be covered by freedom of speech, even when some consider it offensive.

Seeking guidance from the justice system, Swedish police have filed preliminary hate crime charges against the man who burned the Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm in June and desecrated Islam’s holy book again Thursday. It’s now up to prosecutors to decide whether to formally indict him.

Are Swedish authorities singling out Muslims and the Quran?

Some Muslims in Sweden who were deeply hurt by recent Quran burnings questioned whether Swedish police would allow the desecration of holy books from other religions.

One Muslim man apparently decided to put that to the test and applied for permission to stage a protest Saturday outside the Israeli Embassy in which he said he intended to burn the Torah and the Bible.

Though Israeli government officials and Jewish groups condemned the planned act and called on Swedish authorities to stop it, police approved the man’s request. However, once at the scene the man backed away from his plans, saying that as a Muslim he was against the burning of all religious books.

How is blasphemy viewed in other parts of the world?

Blasphemy is criminalized in many countries. A Pew Research Center analysis found that 79 countries and territories out of the 198 studied had laws or policies on the books in 2019 that banned blasphemy, defined as “speech or actions considered to be contemptuous of God or of people or objects considered sacred.” In at least seven countries – Afghanistan, Brunei, Iran, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – it carried a potential death sentence.

In the Middle East and North Africa, 18 of the 20 countries studied had laws criminalizing blasphemy, although not in most cases punishable by death.

In Iraq, publicly insulting a symbol or a person that is held sacred, revered, or respected by a religious sect is a crime punishable by up to three years in prison.

Likewise in religiously diverse Lebanon, where sectarian divisions helped fuel a 15-year civil war from 1975-90, any act “intended to or resulting in” provoking “sectarian strife” is a crime punishable by up to three years in prison.

In the United States, under the freedom of speech protections in the First Amendment of the Constitution, it’s not illegal to burn copies of the Quran or other holy books.

For example, authorities were appalled by Florida pastor Terry Jones’ threat in 2010 to burn a copy of the Quran on the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks but were unable to take legal action. Jones didn’t go through with that plan, but he led a Quran-burning in Florida the next year. 
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Media associations are warning that a rise in visa rejections for Turkish citizens is affecting the ability of the country’s journalists to work.

The number of journalists whose applications for a Schengen visa have been turned down has “significantly risen,” according to the European Federation of Journalists, or EFJ. The visas permit free travel across the European Union.

In a statement this week, the EFJ said that journalists who travel frequently for work are being given short-term visas only, which means they must make repeated applications.

“This burdensome and financially unsustainable process must be addressed,” the federation said.

A Turkish citizen who holds a regular passport must apply for a visa to enter the Schengen area, which encompasses 27 EU member states.

Data from SchengenVisaInfo show the rate of Turkish citizens’ visa rejections at 15% last year. But the EFJ said the rate of visa rejections for Turkish citizens in 2023 has surged to 50 percent, affecting journalists.

“We call upon a number of diplomatic missions to rectify their prejudiced and discriminatory attitudes toward journalists from Turkey, as these biases obstruct reporters from fulfilling their professional responsibilities effectively,” EFJ Vice President Mustafa Kuleli said.

The Turkish government has repeatedly charged that the EU’s motive behind the visa rejections of Turkish citizens is political.

“We will settle the visa problem, which has been used as political blackmail recently, as soon as possible,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on May 30.

The EU authorities deny that claim. “No decisions are taken on political grounds but rather on objective grounds,” Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, head of the EU delegation to Turkey, told Reuters.

Visa deal

Under a 2016 deal between the EU and Turkey, Brussels pledged to provide 6 billion euros (about $6.7 billion) to Ankara to help it prevent refugee crossings onto EU soil and also to ease the visa application process for the Turkish citizens.

“The EU visa liberalization promised to the Turkish citizens is now almost a dream. The application requirements are getting more difficult, and the number of the requested documents is increasing daily,” said EFJ President Nazmi Bilgin.

Bilgin told VOA that Turkish citizens are being treated as potential refugees intending to flee to Europe.

Kivanc El, the head of the Progressive Journalists Association, said the foreign officials from EU nations act as if Turkish journalists will seek asylum there.

“If our colleagues consider seeking asylum, they would do it properly. But, in their visa applications, their destination, where they will be, what meetings they will attend are known,” El told VOA.

On June 15, T24 editor-in-chief Dogan Akin wrote a column detailing that, when the news website’s foreign editor applied for a Schengen visa from the German consulate four years ago, T24 was asked to provide its bank statements.

“We decided not to move forward with the visa application at that point,” Akin wrote.

Last August, Reuters reported that Turkish sports presenter Sinem Okten’s Schengen visa application was rejected twice. “I applied first to Germany, then to France. Both rejected my application,” Okten told Reuters.

“I’ve traveled abroad numerous times to follow and film matches and interview people, maybe 50 to 60 times. This is the first time I am having this problem,” she said.

Bilgin said that visa rejections affect journalistic work.

“In the past, our colleagues could easily get visas only by stating the institution they work for and explaining where and when they will travel. Even if they fulfill the aggravated application requirements, they cannot get a visa these days,” Bilgin said.

The Schengen visa application with additional service fees can cost about 100 euros, more than a quarter of the current monthly minimum wage in Turkey.

Worries about financial security

According to Reuters Institute’s 2022 Digital News report, the media sector in Turkey faces financial problems “with devaluation fueling a 20-year high in inflation.”

“Independent journalists who already work under difficult political conditions are also increasingly worried for their financial security,” the report states.

Journalists with press cards issued by the Turkish presidency’s Directorate of Communications are eligible to obtain service passports that enable them to travel visa-free to the Schengen area for their work.

“Unfortunately, the Directorate of Communications does not issue press cards to many journalists,” El told VOA.

Fahrettin Altun, the director of communications in the Turkish presidency, wrote on Turkey’s Directorate of Communications website, “So long as we are on duty, we will keep combating those who carry out ‘terrorism propaganda’ in the guise of ‘journalism.’ Terror sympathizers should not rejoice in vain.”

Local journalism organizations say the Directorate of Communications hands the press cards only to pro-government media outlets, discriminating against independent or dissident journalists.

This report originated in VOA’s Turkish Service.
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After Russia withdrew from a deal allowing Ukraine to export grain through ports on the Black Sea, the Kremlin launched attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain hubs. Anna Kosstutschenko spoke with Ukrainian farmers about how this will impact them. VOA footage by Pavel Suhodolskiy
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A senior British member of parliament deleted a video Thursday praising the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan and apologized for what he said was the outcome of his “poor communication.”

Tobias Ellwood of the Conservative Party released the video commentary Wednesday on Twitter after his trip to the war-ravaged South Asian nation last week.

He argued in his now-deleted video that the security situation in Afghanistan had “vastly improved” since the Taliban returned to power two years ago.

Ellwood added that “corruption is down,” and the Taliban have almost eliminated the opium trade. He recorded his comments in the southern Afghan province of Helmand, one of the world’s largest opium poppy producers.

“This is a very different country indeed — it feels different now since the Taliban have returned to power,” he said. Ellwood urged Britain to re-engage with the Taliban and reopen its embassy in Kabul.

His video sparked outrage and prompted fellow members to move to seek his ouster as chairman of the House of Commons Defense Select Committee.

“I’m very, very sorry that my reflection of my visit could have been much better worded and have been taken out of context,” Ellwood said Thursday in his statement on Twitter after deleting the video. 

 

 

Taliban chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid retweeted the video Thursday, calling it a “positive report.” But he, too, later deleted the tweet without explaining. 

 

British media quoted Mark Francois, a defense committee member, telling the House of Commons on Wednesday that the video was “utterly bizarre” and advising Ellwood to be “very careful” in expressing his views. 

 

“Tobias Ellwood’s video could have been issued by the Afghan tourist board,” Jacob Rees-Mogg, a British member of parliament, said in a sarcastic Twitter comment. 

 

On Thursday, Ellwood appeared to defend some of his remarks in the controversial video, including criticism of the British government for not engaging directly with the Taliban, saying, “our current strategy of shouting from afar, after abruptly abandoning the country in 2021” was not working.

“However well-intentioned, reflections of my personal visit could have been better worded,” he said.

“I stand up, speak my mind, try to see the bigger picture, and offer solutions, especially on the international stage, as our world turns a dangerous corner. I don’t always get it right,” the lawmaker added.

“My simple call to action was to see our embassy reopen again and pursue a more direct strategy to help the 40 million people that we abandoned,” Ellwood said.

The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021 when the United States and other Western allies withdrew all their troops after almost two decades of involvement in the war.

The fundamentalist de facto rulers have since introduced their strict interpretation of Islamic law or Sharia, squeezing women out of public life and placing an indefinite ban on girls’ education beyond the sixth grade. The restrictions on Afghan women and other human rights concerns have kept the international community from granting legitimacy to Taliban rule.

Taliban leaders defend their government, saying it is aligned with the Afghan culture and Sharia.

A U.S. State Department spokesman told reporters Wednesday that “we are not reconsidering opening an embassy at this point” in Afghanistan. He was responding to a question about Ellwood’s video.

“We have always made clear to the Taliban that there are certain steps that we expect them to take if they want to gain any form of international legitimacy, which they are a long way from reaching, if at all possible,” Matthew Miller said and denounced as “abhorrent” curbs the Taliban have placed on Afghan women and girls.

“We strongly object to those steps, and of course, we know that others in the international community take note, and they consider those in assessing their relationship with their government.” 
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African leaders are to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg at the end of this month for a summit, billed as strengthening cooperation in peace, security, and development.

But the second Russia-Africa Summit comes as Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine. Russia’s invasion has led to higher food and oil prices for many African nations – and prices could rise further after Russia this week pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a U.N.-brokered deal that allowed Ukrainian food exports to reach international markets.

International summits involve an element of political theater, analysts say, and African attendance will be a measure of success for the St. Peterburg gathering, according to Steven Gruzd, who leads the Africa-Russia project at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg.

“I think there will be a lot of focus on who attends … and last time in 2019, when the world looked very different before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, there were 43 African heads of state that went to Sochi [Russia] for the 2019 summit,” Gruzd told VOA.

Mvemba Dizolele, who directs the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said this will be a high-stakes discussion.

“They [Russia] are under a lot of pressure with what’s happening in Ukraine and the ramifications of the conflict there in terms of commodity prices, particularly for Africans — and also what’s happening with Wagner and so on — so this an opportunity for Russia to try to assert its place on the global stage as well,” Dizolele told VOA.

Trade likely will be discussed.

“I think there would be talk about trade … Russia’s trade with Africa is really negligible. China and the EU are by far much bigger trading partners with Africa,” Gruzd noted.

Russia is also looking to get around sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies.

“No African countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, so it’s a lucrative market,” said Gruzd. “We saw a similar pattern after the invasion of Georgia in 2008, and the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, as Western markets closed to Russia business, they sought markets elsewhere and of course Africa, Latin America, Asia were areas where they did seek to expand.”

The U.N. General Assembly in February passed a resolution demanding that Russia end the war and leave Ukrainian territory. While 141 countries voted in favor, two African countries voted against it and 15 abstained.

“Russia benefited from that in the sense that it showed them they have some friends,” Dizolele said. “It’s simply an awakening on the African part. They are particularly sending a message to the rest of the world, ‘we also have our own foreign policies, and those reflect our national interest.’”

He said the reality is that every country has done what it needed to do.

“The French president went to Russia and tried to negotiate something that was very different than what the Americans were trying to negotiate. We see various leaders of Europe … go to Russia. Italy did not have the same position and France didn’t have the same position as Germany. It’s totally normal that people have different positions. All that is based on their interest. I think we need to accept that of Africans,” Dizolele said.

The United States, Turkey, China, France, and other countries have convened similar summits of African leaders. Dizolele said the optics of one country summoning the leaders of an entire continent undermines Africa’s efforts to assert itself on the global stage.

“Africa is a big place. Africa is a critical component and critical member of the global community. It has a lot to offer from … natural resources, mineral resources but most importantly the youth. It’s the youngest continent with the median age of 19,” he said.

“So, if that’s the case, it’s important that Africans start demanding that people come to them. You can’t be important and going to everyone all the time, it reduces your value,” he notes.
…

Latest developments:

Belarus says its military is training with fighters from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group at a site near the Belarus-Poland border.
European Union foreign ministers met Thursday to discuss a proposed four-year, $22.4 billion military aid plan for Ukraine.

 

Officials in southern Ukraine said Thursday that Russia carried out an overnight airstrike on the port city of Mykolaiv, wounding at least 19 people.

Regional governor Vitaliy Kim said on Telegram that the airstrike hit the city center, and that the wounded included five children. Kim added that two people were rescued from the rubble.

Oleksandr Snkevych, Mykolaiv’s mayor, said the strike damaged at least five high-rise buildings as well as a number of garages.

In Odesa, officials said Thursday a Russian strike killed at least one person.

Russia has targeted Odesa and Mykolaiv with aerial attacks multiple times this week.

“Russian terrorists continue their attempts to destroy the life of our country,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

Meanwhile, Russia-installed officials in Crimea said a Ukrainian drone attack killed one person and damaged multiple administrative buildings in the northwestern part of the peninsula.

Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it in 2014 in a move not recognized by the international community.

Black Sea shipping

Russia’s defense ministry issued new safety warnings to vessels bound for Ukrainian ports, two days after canceling an agreement that allowed ships carrying Ukrainian grain to pass through the Black Sea.

The statement issued on the Telegram messaging app said that starting at midnight Moscow time on July 20, “All vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo.”

It added, “Countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”

The statement said several areas in the Black Sea have been “declared temporarily dangerous for navigation” and that Russia has issued “warnings on the withdrawal of safety guarantees to mariners.”

White House National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said in a statement Wednesday that the United States has information indicating Russia placed additional sea mines in areas leading to Ukrainian ports.

“We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks,” Hodge said.

Kurt Volker, the former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told VOA that Russia “has no right to threaten third-party vessels” operating in international waters in the Black Sea.

“The U.S. Navy, the U.S. Marines and the British and the Dutch, we have all stood for the principle of freedom of navigation for commercial vessels really since the beginning of the time the U.S. Navy was founded, and for Russia just to come out and say that any vessel that it decides it wants to attack it’s going to attack, that is the equivalent of piracy. And we have to speak up against this,” Volker said.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered last year by the United Nations and Turkey, lifted a Russian blockade on Ukrainian ports that Russia imposed after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia announced Monday it would not renew the deal, which is credited with easing food shortages and inflation in many countries that depend on Ukrainian grain to feed their populations.

USAID chief Samantha Power told VOA in Kyiv on Wednesday that countries should publicly condemn Russia for withdrawing from “an initiative that was all about getting food out of Ukraine to the rest of the world.”

“I saw firsthand in places like Somalia, Kenya and Lebanon over the course of the last year just how dependent those economies are on the import of Ukrainian wheat. So, you know, this is not a time for countries to stand back and lament this development. This is a chance for them to come out publicly or better yet, engage Russian diplomats on the costs of this decision for global food prices,” Power told VOA.

Ukrainian counteroffensive

In Washington on Wednesday, the U.S. Defense Department announced a new $1.3 billion security package for Ukraine.

The package includes four advanced surface-to-air missile systems along with mine-clearing equipment and artillery rounds.

Russia has laid dense and complex minefields as part of efforts to defend territory it captured from Ukraine in the early stages of the war.

So far, war analysts say Ukraine has retaken about 250 square kilometers of territory since launching a counteroffensive in early June, but that Russia has maintained control of large expanses of land.

VOA national security correspondent Jeff Seldin, VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb and VOA’s Anna Chernikova in Kyiv contributed to this story. Some information came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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Now that Sweden’s ascension into NATO appears closer to approval following developments during the NATO summit last week, many wonder what power Sweden’s military can bring to the alliance. VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb explains more about Sweden’s military might beneath the surface of the Baltic Sea.
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TAIPEI – As the war in Ukraine rages on, China and Russia are hosting joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan that analysts say are the latest sign of deepening cooperation between the two military powerhouses. The drills are also part of an effort to counter growing partnership of the U.S. and its allies in the region, they add.

“Russia and China are trying to convey to Japan and the U.S. that they are very unhappy with their cooperation in NATO and the [Indo-Pacific] region, and they want to prove that they can achieve the same level of cooperation in the region as [Washington and its allies,]” Stephen Nagy, a regional security expert at the International Christian University, told VOA.

For Russia, Nagy added, the drills are a way of showing “that they still have the capacity to manage conflicts on the eastern front but also provide capabilities to the Indo-Pacific region to work with China and pressure the U.S.”

“They want to prove that they can still work with China to cause major disruption, especially in Japan’s backyard,” he said.

According to a report posted on China’s Defense Ministry website Thursday, five Chinese warships and two Russian guided missile frigates linked up in the Sea of Japan Wednesday completing preparations for the drill, which is dubbed “Northern/Interaction – 2023.” The report, however, did not say when the exercises would begin or finish.

In total, both countries have deployed more than 10 naval vessels and more than 30 military aircraft to take part in the exercise, the report added.  According to China’s state-run Global Times, the exercise marks the first time that both Russia’s navy and air force will participate in a joint exercise led by China. Northern/Interaction-2023 is the first joint military exercise conducted near Japan this year, but according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia and China conducted at least five military exercises in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea last year.

Forceful response?

The announcement of the exercise comes as ties are strengthening between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and follows a trilateral missile defense drill involving the three in the Sea of Japan this week aimed at countering North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

Some Chinese military commentators say China and Russia’s joint exercise is a forceful response to the trilateral conducted by the U.S. and its allies.

“The Chinese and Russian drills will focus on air defense exercise, anti-missile exercise, anti-submarine exercise, and anti-ship exercise,” Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping said in a video he released Saturday. Adding that he thinks Russia and China will conduct joint sea and air patrols following the exercise.

Since the waterways around the Sea of Japan are all crucial passages for Chinese and Russian navies to get to the Western Pacific, a broad swath of countries that stretches from Russia in the north to New Zealand in the south, Song added that China and Russia should challenge the trilateral military alliance because their presence threatens the security of that strategic waterway.

Beijing’s remarks about the drills have not been as explicit. A statement released on China’s defense ministry’s official social media account on WeChat on Sunday, when Chinese vessels set out for the exercise, said the drill is aimed at “safeguarding the security of strategic waterways” in the Sea of Japan.

Multiple strategic goals

The military exercise is not just about countering the U.S. and its allies. Some experts think China and Russia also hope to fulfill some strategic goals through the drills.

Lin Ying-yu, a China military expert at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told VOA that Beijing wants to learn from Moscow’s experience of countering attacks on their navy from the land in the Ukraine war.

“During the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have used missile or fighter jets to attack Russian ships at sea, so Russian forces have experience coping with this kind of attack,” he said.

Lin adds that the People’s Liberation Army could face similar situations if it attacked Taiwan and the island’s military could use anti-ship missiles or drones to target Chinese naval vessels in a cross-Strait conflict.

“Scenarios from the Ukraine war may be simulated in the China-Russia joint military exercise,” he said.

Nagy said the drill is also about demonstrating cohesiveness with the Russians, especially in the wake of the Wagner rebellion.

“These kinds of military activities demonstrate that the Chinese are firmly wedded to their relationship with Russia,” he said. “While they are not supportive of the conflict with Ukraine, they want to ensure that Putin remains in power.”

More drills for the Indo-Pacific

As Beijing and Moscow look to double down on their “no limits” partnership, Lin said he thinks this drill is just the beginning and it is likely that the two countries will increase the number of joint military exercises.

He argued that maintaining close interaction with China has become critical for Russia as it becomes more and more isolated diplomatically. Just before the drill in the Sea of Japan, the two Russian frigates that will participate docked in Shanghai, hosting visitors for a week according to the Global Times.

At the same time, Shen Ming-shih, Director of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, said he expects the U.S. and its allies to hold more joint military exercises to counter the growing Russian and Chinese presence in the region. “The U.S., Japan, and South Korea will strengthen their military capabilities in maritime warfare, as well as increase the number of relevant exercises,” he told VOA.

However, one thing that remains to be seen, Lin said, is whether Japan will amend or adjust its security treaties, as it faces security threats from multiple fronts, including Russia to the north, China to the Southwest, and North Korea’s constant missile-firing. He thinks it’s worth observing whether the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan pursue more security and military cooperation against this backdrop.
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Hundreds of protesters stormed the Swedish Embassy compound in Baghdad early Thursday morning and set a building on fire, a source familiar with the matter and a Reuters witness said, in a protest against the expected burning of a Quran in Sweden. 

The source said no embassy staff had been harmed and declined to say more. Swedish Embassy officials in Baghdad did not immediately respond to requests for comment.  

A Swedish foreign ministry spokesperson declined to comment.  

Thursday’s demonstration by supporters of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was called to protest the second planned Quran burning in Sweden in weeks, according to posts in a popular Telegram group linked to the influential cleric and other pro-Sadr media.  

Swedish news agency TT reported on Wednesday that Swedish police had granted an application for a public meeting outside the Iraqi Embassy in Stockholm on Thursday. The application says the applicant seeks to burn the Quran and the Iraqi flag, TT reported.

Two-person protest 

Two people were set to participate in the demonstration, according to TT, adding that one of the people was the same person who set a Quran on fire outside a Stockholm mosque in June. 

A series of videos posted to the Telegram group One Baghdad showed people gathering around the embassy around 1 a.m. local time Thursday (2200 GMT Wednesday) chanting pro-Sadr slogans and storming the embassy complex around an hour later.  

“Yes, yes to the Quran,” protesters chanted.  

Videos later showed smoke rising from a building in the embassy complex. Reuters could not independently verify the authenticity of the videos.  

It was not immediately clear if anyone was inside the embassy at the time of the storming.  

Late last month, Sadr called for protests against Sweden and the expulsion of the Swedish ambassador after the Quran burning in Stockholm by an Iraqi man.  

Swedish police charged the man with agitation against an ethnic or national group. In a newspaper interview, he described himself as an Iraqi refugee seeking to ban the Quran, the central religious text of Islam, believed by Muslims to be a revelation from God. 

Two major protests took place outside the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad in the aftermath of that Quran burning, with protesters breaching the embassy grounds on one occasion. 

The governments of several Muslim countries, including Iraq, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Morocco, issued protests about the incident, with Iraq seeking the man’s extradition to face trial in the country.  

The United States also condemned it but added that Sweden’s issuing of the permit supported freedom of expression and was not an endorsement of the action. 
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WASHINGTON – Russia is considering attacking civilian ships on the Black Sea and then putting the blame on Ukrainian forces, a senior White House official said Wednesday.

“The Russian military may expand their targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping,” National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said.

He said the allegation was based on newly declassified intelligence.

It came in the wake of missile and drone attacks by Russia against the port city of Odesa, as well as the Kremlin’s decision to pull out of an international deal allowing safe passage of massive Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea to world markets.

Moscow said its missiles targeted military objectives in Odesa, but Hodge backed Ukrainian accusations that the attack destroyed “agricultural infrastructure and 60,000 tons of grain” ready for export.

According to the White House official, those kinds of attacks could now expand to civilian ships. And Russia is mounting an operation to make such attacks look like they were carried out by Ukraine, he said.

Hodge cited Russia’s release of a video showing its forces detecting and destroying an “alleged Ukrainian sea mine” Wednesday.

At the same time, “our information indicates that Russia laid additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports. We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks.”

The Russian defense ministry said all vessels sailing to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea from Thursday on will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo and its flag states “will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.” 
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A video released Wednesday appears to show Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin for the first time since he led a short-lived rebellion last month. He is seen telling his troops they will spend some time in Belarus training its military before deploying to Africa. 

Messaging app channels linked to Prigozhin’s Wagner private military company said he spoke at a field camp in Belarus and ran a blurry video apparently showing him there, his silhouette seen against the sky at dusk. His gravelly voice was clearly distinguishable. 

“Welcome, guys! I am happy to greet you all. Welcome to the Belarusian land!” the video showed him saying. “We fought with dignity! We have done a lot for Russia.” 

Prigozhin’s mutiny, which posed the most serious threat to President Vladimir Putin’s 23-year rule, was billed by the mercenary chief as being aimed at ousting Russia’s top military leaders, whom he accused of incompetence. 

Prigozhin’s criticism of the conduct of the fighting in Ukraine was repeated in the new video, the authenticity of which could not be immediately verified. 

Effort is ‘a shame’

“What is going on the front line today is a shame in which we shouldn’t take part,” he said, adding that Wagner forces could return to Ukraine in the future. 

“We may return to the special military operation when we feel sure that we will not be forced to put shame on ourselves,” Prigozhin said, using the same term that the Kremlin calls the fighting in Ukraine. 

“We need to wait for the moment when we can show ourselves in full,” he said. “That is why a decision has been made that we would spend some time here in Belarus. During that time, we will make the Belarusian army the second-strongest army in the world. We will train, raise our level and set off for a new journey to Africa.” 

In addition to their involvement in Ukraine, Wagner mercenaries have been sent to Syria and several African countries since the private army was created in 2014. 

Under the deal that was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin agreed to end his rebellion in exchange for an amnesty for him and his fighters and permission to relocate to Belarus. 

Before moving to Belarus, Wagner handed over its weapons to the Russian military, part of efforts by Russian authorities to defuse the threat posed by the mercenaries. 

Audio messages

Until the video was posted Wednesday, Prigozhin had released only a couple of audio messages since the mutiny — contrasting with an almost-daily barrage of blustery statements before the June 23-24 events. Some saw that as a sign the deal obliged him to cut his rhetoric and stay away from politics. 

Starting last week, several Wagner convoys flying Russian flags and Wagner insignias have been seen rolling into Belarus, heading toward a field camp that Belarusian authorities had offered to the company. 

Satellite photos from Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by The Associated Press showed a convoy of vehicles at the base near Tsel in the Asipovichy region of Belarus, about 90 kilometers southeast of Minsk. The photos taken Monday showed a long line of vehicles coming off a highway. 

Belaruski Hajun, an activist group that monitors troop movements in Belarus, said several convoys with Wagner fighters have entered the country since last week, including at least 170 vehicles on Tuesday. It estimated that about 2,500 Wagner mercenaries are now in Belarus. 

On the move

On Monday, a messaging app channel linked to the contractor ran a video showing Russian and Wagner flags lowered at the mercenaries’ main home base in Molkino in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia. The channel said that the base would close on July 30, and one of the mercenaries in the video declared that Wagner was moving to unspecified new locations. Wagner also has used camps in the Russia-occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine. 

Prigozhin presented the flag to cheering mercenaries in the video posted Wednesday. 

Lukashenko has said that his country’s military could benefit from the mercenaries’ combat experience and rejected claims that their presence could destabilize the ex-Soviet nation. Last week, Belarusian state TV broadcast video of Wagner instructors training Belarus’ territorial defense forces. 

In his revolt that began on June 23 and lasted less than 24 hours, Prigozhin’s mercenaries swept through the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and captured the military headquarters there before moving as close as 200 kilometers to Moscow. 

The mutiny faced little resistance and the mercenaries downed at least six military helicopters and a command post aircraft, killing at least 10 airmen.
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CAIRO — Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has pardoned rights researcher Patrick Zaki a day after he was handed a three-year prison term on charges of spreading false news in a case that drew new attention to Egypt’s crackdown on dissent. 

Zaki had been studying in Italy before his detention during a trip home in 2020 over a news article in which he documented life as a Coptic Christian in Egypt.  

He will return to Italy on Thursday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a statement in which she thanked Sisi for a “very important act.”  

Sisi’s pardon, which was reported by a state news agency and confirmed by lawyers, also included Mohamed El-Baqer, a rights lawyer who represented Egypt’s well-known activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah and was arrested in 2019 while attending his client’s interrogation. 

Zaki’s case gained widespread attention in Italy, which had already been jolted by the killing and torture in Egypt of Italian student Giulio Regeni in 2016. Four Egyptian security officials have been charged in Italy over Regeni’s disappearance and murder, while Egyptian officials have repeatedly denied involvement.  

After Zaki’s sentencing on Tuesday, Meloni had said Italy still had confidence over his case, while a U.S. state department spokesman urged Egypt to release Zaki immediately.  

The head of Egypt’s national dialogue, a state-controlled initiative to debate the country’s future, had appealed to Sisi to use his constitutional powers to have Zaki freed as several members of the dialogue’s board signaled they were quitting over the verdict.  

Zaki, a researcher at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), had served 22 months in pretrial detention before being released in December 2021 pending the completion of his trial. EIPR said he was subjected to torture following his arrest. 

His arrest came amid a far-reaching crackdown on dissent under Sisi, who led the overthrow of democratically elected Islamist leader Mohamed Mursi a decade ago before becoming president the following year. 

Many of those swept up in the crackdown remain in prison, including senior Muslim Brotherhood figures and Abd el-Fattah. 

Authorities have justified the arrests on security grounds. 

Since late 2021 Egypt has taken a number of steps that it says are aimed at addressing human rights, including amnesties for some prominent prisoners, but critics have dismissed the moves as cosmetic and say arrests have continued. 

“Baqer and Patrick should not have spent one day in jail for their human rights work,” EIPR head Hossam Bahgat said in a tweet. “We welcome the news of their pardon and call for the immediate release of thousands still detained in Egypt on political grounds.”
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